Abstract for: Modeling the Feasibility of an Alcohol-to-Jet Industry based on Sugarcane in Ecuador

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are essential to address growing CO2 emissions in the aviation sector. In Ecuador, sugarcane-based bioethanol offers a promising feedstock for producing SAF through alcohol-to-jet technology (ATJ). However, adopting SAF demands more than technological solutions—it requires developing complex supply chains involving farmers, policymakers, investors, technology providers, and consumers. The model focuses on the supply chain for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production via the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) pathway, using sugarcane (SC) as the primary feedstock and ethanol as the intermediate product. It comprises distinct sub-models covering land use in feedstock cultivation, sugarcane processing to distribute SC between sugar and ethanol, SAF production (including ethanol allocation between gasoline and SAF), economic feasibility, and CO2 emissions reduction. SAF production follows a logistic growth curve influenced by sugarcane (SC) production, ethanol allocation to gasoline, and facility expansion. SC land allocation increases with SAF demand but is limited by available arable land. Initially, the project’s Net Present Value (NPV) remains negative, improving only with policies—particularly those lowering SAF’s selling price. Though CO2 emissions decline with higher output, they offer minimal influence on overall economic performance. The model still needs a diffusion component to account for factors influencing farmers’ decisions to allocate land to sugarcane, backed by additional policies incentivizing production. Further analysis is required for ethanol-gasoline distribution, alongside environmental and social considerations. Subsidies must cover the gap between SAF’s minimum selling price and market rates, but establishing the state’s benefits from these subsidies remains crucial to ensuring a sustainable and equitable SAF industry. ChatGPT to grammar check