Abstract for: Dynamic Simulation Modeling for Resilience Assessment of Coupled Water-Agriculture-Community Systems in a semi-arid region

This study aims to assess the resilience of WACS as a system and explore whether improving Water Conveyance Efficiency could enhance its resilience in the LRG. The following two hypotheses were examined: 1- The water-agriculture-community system (WACS) in the LRG is not resilient in response to climate change. 2- Improving water conveyance efficiency enhances the resilience of WACS in coping with climate change in the LRG. This study applied System Dynamics modeling and Function-based resilience assessment approach. The model integrated eight subsystems to assess the resilience of the WACS in the Lower Rio Grande. We considered three main systems of water, agriculture, and community, and included the social and economic components that are fundamental to the framework of coupled water, agriculture, and community system. While the hydrological system, represented by groundwater storage, exhibited signs of resilience, particularly under enhanced water conveyance efficiency, the agricultural-community system consistently struggled to adapt or reorganize effectively in response to climate shocks or efficiency improvements. The trade-off between hydrological and agricultural resilience highlights the critical need for integrated management approaches, which could be a future research priority in this field. Ultimately, our findings emphasize that resilience-building in WACS requires a system approach that addresses both environmental and socio-economic dimensions. Policymakers and resource managers must prioritize interventions that balance water resource sustainability with agricultural productivity, ensuring long-term resilience for both the hydrological and community systems in the face of climate change.