Abstract for: System Dynamics Modeling of Grid Risk Futures

The US electricity grid faces escalating risks from surging demand, cyber threats, and extreme weather. Increased reliance on electricity magnifies these dangers. A lack of clear investment pathways for grid resilience leads to rising insurance costs, credit downgrades, and potential system collapse, with no single entity fully accountable. System dynamics modeling, with stakeholder input, can clarify the electricity grid's escalating risks. "Grid Risk Futures" aims to model these risks through iterative, participatory processes. A dynamic hypothesis, refined by literature and stakeholder feedback, guides model development. This approach identifies potential tipping points in the grid's risk posture. Current results include a growing literature review, linked directly to a detailed causal loop diagram. Stakeholders within the system are illustrated on the diagram. Indications of sub-modules are present, which are areas of the model with high endogeneity. The outcome of this project will be a collaborative and consensus-driven quantitative model with exposure of alternative RDD&D strategies supporting the technology base and decision-making capability of key stakeholders. The Grid Risk Futures pilot seeks to support grid modernization strategy for government stakeholders, the broader industry, and the public by improving the modeling, understanding, communication, and confidence management of several complex and interrelated risks that may be driving the industry to a crossroads. Shortening a human-written abstract to the suggested structure.